Karbalevich: Lukashenka Instinctively Feels Danger

• 28.11.2022, 9:33

Unexpectedly there appeared an external threat.

All last week the Belarusian political leadership devoted to foreign policy. Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko visited Iran, Syria, and Russia, political analyst Valery Karbalevich for Svobodnye Novosti writes.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka participated in the CSTO summit in Yerevan and twice commented on international events. He is obviously restricted by the narrow framework of the Belarusian politics. A broad international arena attracts him. He aspires to the status of a world-class politician. The more he finds himself in international isolation, the more he tries to draw attention to himself.

On the other hand, Lukashenka instinctively feels that the main threat to his rule today comes from outside the country. He has "put things in order" within the country, suppressing any alternative. However, unexpectedly, an external threat emerges. Lukashenka sees an imminent danger in the event of Russia's defeat in the war in Ukraine and all the possible consequences for his own political survival. "God forbid, Russia collapses, then our place is under that rubble," he says. The diagnosis is accurate enough.

The reaction to this threat is rather controversial. Firstly, it is a demonstration of optimism, belief in Russia's victory, and hope that the Ukrainian people won't endure 1-2 years of war and will force President Zelensky to seek peace.

Secondly, aggressive rhetoric towards the West and a demonstration of support for Russia, at least in verbal form. And here an interesting story unfolds.

Speaking at the CSTO summit in Yerevan on November 23, Lukashenka harshly criticized those politicians who threaten to use nuclear weapons:

"We strongly believe that nuclear blackmail has no place in international politics!"

He then went out to reporters at the end of the summit and threatened the West with nuclear weapons:

"Listen, you have no idea how we can retaliate. One knows whom I address. We're not going to discuss the problem of a dirty or clean atomic bomb here. It's no longer up for discussion. We will respond and not just Europe is going to shudder. And it is not only us but our agreements with Russia, it is our joint armed forces with it."

It often happens to Lukashenka when he reads a text written by his speechwriters, he says one thing and then, in the course of free improvisation, states something else, absolutely the opposite, but what he actually thinks. One gets the impression that his threat to Europe with a dirty atomic bomb is a psychological defense against the danger of Russia's defeat in war.

Although, for the sake of order, he presented his blackmail as a response "if suddenly someone attacks us". However, his statements about the threat of attack from the West have already become an obligatory ritual. Few people in the political world pay attention to them. Meanwhile, nuclear blackmail has been paid attention to and understood correctly.

The fact is that lately the Kremlin has toned down its rhetoric about the use of nuclear weapons. First, it has faced condemnation of nuclear blackmail from leading Asian countries: China and India. Second, the U.S. has clearly explained what its response to Russia's use of weapons of mass destruction would be.

And now Lukashenka takes the floor and says what Putin does not want to say, acting as the press secretary of the Russian president. The role of blackmailer is quite organic for the Belarusian leader. He has nothing to lose in terms of reputation.

It is worth noting that Lukashenka has played the role of Putin's inner voice several times this day. Russian officials have recently mentioned their readiness to negotiate with Ukraine. Now, Lukashenka raised this topic in a conversation with journalists. Again, he said what Putin does not want to say. Lukashenka urged the world community to force Kyiv to negotiate, declaring that otherwise "there will be a complete destruction of Ukraine".

This psychological attack on Volodymyr Zelensky also reveals the self-preservation instinct of the Belarusian regime. But the problem is that Lukashenka's rhetoric has been completely devalued for the Ukrainian and European audiences in general. With the outbreak of war, Ukraine and Europe do not accept Lukashenka's words at all. Therefore, they are a voice of one crying in the wilderness.

But let's return to the CSTO summit. It has exposed the crisis of the organization. By the way, when speaking in Yerevan, Lukashenka had to admit that something was wrong with this union.

"It is no wonder that this year we held four meetings, both in the form of video conference and in person. Unfortunately, we still have few reasons for optimism.

Armenia refused to sign two documents as a result of the summit.

However, there is one problem in Lukashenka's positioning within the CSTO. The thing is that he explains the crisis phenomena in the CSTO activity by machinations, intrigues and sinister actions of the West. Lukashenka states:

"We've repeatedly mentioned that one tries to rock the societies inside our countries - just around the perimeter of the Russian Federation. First Ukraine went up in flames; in 2020, they tried to destroy Belarus. We've been through it - the Belarusians. This January - Kazakhstan (it is good that Kazakhstan's leadership handled this conflict). Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a conflict... They do not need stability and peace in our region; they need destruction under their control... We are being pushed against each other.

In other words, Lukashenka attributes all problems and conflicts in the post-Soviet space to interference of the West. He urged the leaders of this organization to unite on the anti-Western basis. That is, he is trying to translate the propaganda narrative, the primitive conspiracy preached by the Belarusian and Russian TV channels, into real policy and base any actions on it. Lukashenka seeks to impose a parallel picture of the world on the other CSTO leaders. He wonders why they do not react.

A long life in their illusory world imposes its own imprint on the world outlook. A person confuses propaganda and real politics. That's why he doesn't even try to get into the real reasons for the CSTO crisis. A major one is the weakening of Russia's geopolitical status, which, in turn, is a consequence of its imperial policy.