"Lukashenka's Entourage Will Start to Scatter en Masse, Saving Themselves"

• 9.01.2021, 9:10

Events in Belarus are developing according to a revolutionary scenario.

A well-known Russian economist, deputy director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yevgeny Gontmakher, wrote in an article for Moskovsky Komsomolets that the Belarusian revolution is developing according to its principles and canons and is breaking the current Kremlin scenarios in Belarus.

"The protest has moved to the next stage: it has spread throughout the courtyards, neighborhoods, and an underground social and cultural life is rapidly forming. A parallel reality arises: during the day, people pretend that they study and work, and in the evening and at night, on social networks, life goes on as if "Lukashism" is gone. At the same time, the authorities do not understand what to do because you cannot "catch" everyone. This is very reminiscent of the Polish 70-80s of the last century, which ended with the collapse of the "socialist system" throughout Central Europe, and then the collapse of the USSR.

But, unlike Poland, such coexistence can last not for years, but most likely only for months, because there is the Internet. Disabling it for a long time is technically more expensive for the current Belarusian regime because it deprives it of the opportunity to develop a "digital gulag," as well as simply bring down the financial system and the remnants of the export sector of the economy," the expert notes.

Yevgeny Gontmakher names two important factors that will lead to an even stronger international isolation of the Lukashenka regime and the Russian leadership's refusal to support the dictator even formally.

"The first of these factors is a gradual change in the attitude of Belarusians towards Russia. Sociology shows that the attitude towards Russia is gradually deteriorating. The reason is Moscow's demonstrative (albeit sluggish) support for Lukashenka.

The second factor is the position of the European Union and the United States. They have already introduced the first packages of sanctions against individuals and some Belarusian enterprises. With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that the situation will become tougher due to EU policy changes and the coming to power of President Biden.

I would like to remind you that the US Congress, with an overwhelming majority of votes, adopted the "Act on Democracy, Human Rights, and Sovereignty of Belarus," which allows the president to impose new sanctions and does not recognize the inclusion of Belarus in a "union state" with Russia. There can hardly be any doubt that the new American administration will not take advantage of this. And this is an important signal for the European Union, which is slowly but consistently tightening up its policy towards the Lukashenka regime.

Most likely, in the coming months, we should expect the next wave of sanctions, which may not be limited to the shutdown of SWIFT. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas recently mentioned the imposition of an embargo on the purchase from Belarus of its main export goods - oil products and potash fertilizers. In recent times, this type of sanction was applied only against Iran in connection with its nuclear program and caused enormous damage to this country, forcing it to make tangible political concessions.

In the case of Belarus, such sanctions will instantly bring down its economy. Will Russia take on the responsibility of compensating for this damage if Lukashenka continues to hold on to power? The point here is not only in huge irrecoverable financial expenses (we will talk about tens of billions of dollars), but also in the next round of tension between Russia and the West," the expert notes.

At the same time, events in Belarus will develop according to a truly revolutionary scenario, as a result of which the Lukashenka regime will be overthrown, the specialist is sure.

In this regard, he advises the Russian authorities "to move from a wait-and-see to an active policy towards the Lukashenka regime" and establish contacts with the Belarusian society's real leaders.

"It would also be important to publicly express the solidarity of outstanding Russian athletes to those Belarusian colleagues who fell under the road roller of the current repressions," the expert notes.

The economist draws attention to the transitional nature of those forces and structures that are now recognized by the European Union as representatives of the Belarusian people. "Therefore, it is extremely important to establish direct contacts with people who can potentially become leaders of the new Belarus. Many of them are arrested. We need to use all the possibilities so that they are free," writes Gontmakher.

"It is clear that such steps will cause Lukashenka's hysteria. But, having received such unequivocal signs of his loss of Russian support, he will have nowhere to go except to pack his things for the exit. Moreover, in this case, his entourage will begin to scatter en masse, saving themselves," the expert notes.