Maxim Katz: Situation In Belarus Reached Important Milestone
- 11.11.2020, 15:48
The next two weeks could be decisive.
Russian political scientist Maxim Katz spoke about why the next two weeks are very important for Belarus.
- The situation in Belarus has reached an important milestone, which will determine how long the period of uncertainty will last there - weeks-months or months-years. How long can a dictator, unacceptable to anyone in the society, stay in power, - writes Maxim Katz. - The protests, which have only grown throughout the time since the rigged elections, reached their peak two weeks ago, when there was the March of the Popular Ultimatum.
However, the very fact of the appearance of some kind of final date until which one must hold out, withstand, and then everything will be as it was - it also mobilized the security officials who gathered around Lukashenka, who continue to hold on to power and distribute state resources in their favor. The idea “we will hold out until the 26th, then we will crush them all, and live as before” is much easier for these citizens to digest than just convictions to press people every Sunday without observing any result.
An important point - I am not saying that the ultimatum was a mistake. It started a lot of good processes and put together a big march. I am simply describing the situation at the moment when the ultimatum was delivered, there was a big march and a one-day noticeable strike.
After the “let’s hold out” mode after the 26th was changed to the “we will press them in” - and we see how for the first time after mid-August mass detentions and torture in prisons returned.
The turning point will be further - will something big, noticeable, happen in the next two weeks, which will again show Lukashenka's entourage and his partners in Russia that the situation has not calmed down, the protest continues, nothing has been crushed, nothing has faded, and that they have held out until October 26 - it had no effect.
That the protest continues with the same force as before, that the security forces still do not control it, no matter what they do.
It can be a big Sunday march this Sunday or next, there can be some other actions, something must happen that will show everyone that the protest is not suppressed, but continues.
If this does not happen, the confrontation will become more protracted. Lukashenka in any case will not be able to rule the country further, he has turned into an occupation administration. But he will be able to hold on to power long enough to push the country back hard, and make it much more difficult to get out of this situation.
The next two weeks are very important.