"The Level of Fatigue Among the Security Forces Is Already Quite High"

• 27.10.2020, 10:10

The Belarusians exhausted the usurper's entourage.

On the morning of October 26, a nationwide strike began in Belarus.

As part of the strike, pensioners and students took to the streets on Monday. Many private enterprises, shops, and cafes were closed, and workers of some state factories and mines (Belaruskali, Hrodna Azot) and transport workers went on strike. On Monday, the Belarusian authorities sent significant security officials to factories to detain the "instigators" of the strike. In the evening, they took AMAP into the streets to disperse the protesters who had gathered in Yakub Kolas Square, Independence Square, and October Square.

How can the protesters get their way from Lukashenka, and how quickly will the Belarusian security forces get tired of working in an extreme regime if they are sent to disperse the protests every day? The TV channel Current Time asked these questions to Belarusian political scientist Ihar Illyash, human rights activist Valiantsin Stefanovich, and senior vice president of EPAM, member of the Coordination Council Maksim Bahratsou.

- Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said that she liked how actively the strike began. How do you personally assess the events of October 25 and 26?

Stefanovich: Yes, it is similar in events to the beginning of the protests on August 9-11. The only thing that, probably, on August 9-11, it was still [more] massive. This can be explained by the fact that Lukashenka ordered to stop the protests by any means and put things in order, at least in Minsk, and preferably before the New Year. And the security forces are bringing this "order."

Bahratsou: A lot of people were preparing for a strike yesterday and today. Many businesses were temporarily closed to show their solidarity with all Belarusian people. I think it is worth paying attention to how big the support level for the strike from the people. Over the weekend, the authorities tried to hold a pro-government rally; there were many rumors about the funds provided, transport, payments, and everything else. But as a result, they indeed failed to make that level of support. And here, relatively simple statements lead to such a response from the people.

- What do you think this nationwide strike will result in, how long will it last? And what do you expect from her?

Illyash: We see that the main result of Tsikhanouskaya's "popular ultimatum" was a surge in protest activity. Its intensity has obviously increased - we can see it in the last two days. For the first time since August, real unrest has begun in factories, and the intensity of the protests has certainly increased. This is the main result. Marches of pensioners - from the perspective of public relations for the authorities, is also very bad. During the election campaign, we often saw when Lukashenka traveled, met [people] somewhere, and most of the people who surrounded him at these meetings were people of retirement age. And now we see that this propaganda picture is crumbling before our eyes: pensioners and the elderly turn out to be the most persistent groups that, even though violence was used against them, still come out to protest every week.

All analysts who objectively assess the situation spoke about this, which is exactly what Tsikhanouskaya's ultimatum will lead to. In fact, she thus seized the initiative from the authorities, taking a more active position. Now the authorities need to respond to this new challenge, a new surge of protest activity. But the fact that this surge would not lead to some kind of sharp fall of the regime was also obvious to all people who objectively assess the situation.

Bahratsou: It is difficult to say specifically, but I think there are several points that we are counting on. Sooner or later, this awareness, the focus on violence by the authorities, will have to go away. The forceful arrests of the people you are showing now only lead to the fact that even more people are involved in the protest. And even more friends, relatives, and acquaintances suffer from this, even more people hate, unfortunately, some part of the Belarusian society that now is in power.

The problem is that we will have to deal with this together sooner or later and somehow move and live on. Violence, in this case, only leads to a backlash. Whether it will happen next week or later is hard to say. But we are here, and we will continue to voice our negative attitude to breaking the law, to the violation of our right to express our opinion, and to violence.

- The two weeks that have passed since the announcement of Tsikhanouskaya's ultimatum to Lukashenka until the start of the strike: did the authorities use them somehow wisely, or did they not invent and did anything at all?

Illyash: We saw some strange movements regarding the possible organization of a huge mass rally in Minsk in support of Lukashenka, but a few days before the X-day, the authorities abandoned this idea. In fact, everything that we have seen during these two weeks is only violence and terror, which have become routine in Belarus. When today came, and unrest in the factories began, the authorities reacted again in the same way - with violence, which we saw the most brutal in Hrodna today at the Hrodna Azot enterprise and intimidation of protesters. In principle, this popular ultimatum has not been put to an end. The impulse that is devoted to the protest movement is still active.

During two and a half months of these endless mass protests in Belarus, in fact, the main stimulant of these protests was the authorities themselves, more precisely, its brutal and often terrorist actions. And people react, flare up again and again; this gives them the strength to go out again and again - exactly that injustice, exactly that lawlessness, on which the authorities decide.

Returning to the story with Hrodna Azot: today, we saw the authorities' very brutal actions towards workers. What will they result in specifically at the enterprise? It is possible that this will just stimulate the workers to turn these local actions into a long-term strike. Much will depend on how the government will operate over and over again.

- For two and a half months, we saw harsh dispersal of the first rallies, protests of women, then pensioners, then students. What do you think the authorities were most surprised or disappointed with when the categories that they considered their own suddenly showed their disagreement?

Illyash: I think that the most shocking thing for the authorities was, of course, the situation with the workers' demonstration back in August. We all remember this story, when Lukashenka was booed at the MZKT plant when the workers chanted: "Go away!"

I think that really, he just did not imagine that this was possible. He always believed that the workers are the electorate who understands him exactly, just for him. And when he faced this, it was, of course, a shock for him. Now the fact that the topic of workers' protests has returned to the agenda is, of course, a very painful moment for the authorities, even though, as I have already said, in fact, there was no nationwide strike when all large factories were stopped.

- Do you think the security forces are already tired of what they have to do for two and a half months with varying degrees of intensity?

Bahratsou: What do you think, if you met a young man now in Minsk and he would say to you: "I work in the AMAP," how would you react to this?

I think that the level of fatigue of security officials at the household level is already quite high for many. You can fence yourself off from the rest of the people with some kind of barracks, some special apartments, and something else, but protests in Belarus have been going on for more than two months. I think they are very tired.

Stefanovich: I think that if a nationwide strike really starts in the country, when everyone takes to the streets, and no one goes to work, then it seems to me that the law enforcement officers will simply no longer have any forces.

- Are there among the people who are now surrounding Aliaksandr Lukashenka, those who can suggest to him some other diplomatic ways to resolve the crisis? Or are there still more so-called security officials?

Bahratsou: Probably, it is better to ask them. But according to the actions, according to what is happening, I think, the voices of those people who could prompt Lukashenka an adequate peaceful modern way out of the situation are now not heard. So far, judging by the actions, there is such a throwing of the power structures: first in one direction, then in another, first to ease the pressure, then to increase, after that, something else.

- Do you have any recent figures for people who were detained on Monday?

Stefanovich: On Monday, more than 200 people have already been detained; the detentions continue right now, continue in the city center. I think that by the end of the day on October 26 or by Tuesday morning, the picture will be more complete, and I would not be surprised [if] there are more than 300 detainees.